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巴菲特致股东的封(2020)5/5

巴菲特致股东的封(2020)5/5


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In the other institutional bucket are professionals who manage their clients’ money, whether those funds belong to wealthy individuals, universities, pensioners or whomever. These professional managers have a mandate to move funds from one investment to another based on their judgment as to valuation and prospects. That is an honorable, though difficult, occupation.

另一个机构机构是管理客户资金的专业人员,无论这些资金属于富人,大学,养老金领取者还是其他人。这些专业经理根据对估值和前景的判断,有权将资金从一项投资转移到另一项投资。这是一个光荣的,尽管困难的职业。


We are happy to work for this “active” group, while they meanwhile search for a better place to deploy the funds of their clientele. Some managers, to be sure, have a long-term focus and trade very infrequently. Others use computers employing algorithms that may direct the purchase or sale of shares in a nano-second. Some professional investors will come and go based upon their macro-economic judgments.

我们很高兴为这个活跃的团队工作,与此同时,他们正在寻找更好的地方来部署其客户的资金。可以肯定的是,一些经理长期关注并且很少交易。其他人则使用采用算法的计算机,这些算法可以在十亿分之一秒的时间内指导股票的购买或出售。一些专业投资者会根据他们的宏观经济判断来来去去。


Our fourth bucket consists of individual shareholders who operate in a manner similar to the active institutional managers I’ve just described. These owners, understandably, think of their Berkshire shares as a possible source of funds when they see another investment that excites them. We have no quarrel with that attitude, which is similar to the way we look at some of the equities we own at Berkshire.

我们的第四类包括个人股东,他们的运作方式与我刚刚描述的活跃的机构经理类似。可以理解的是,当他们看到伯克希尔股票的另一笔投资能够激发他们的兴趣时,他们会把他们的伯克希尔股票视为一种可能的资金来源。我们对此态度没有争执,这与我们看待伯克希尔哈撒韦拥有的某些股票的方式类似。


All of that said, Charlie and I would be less than human if we did not feel a special kinship with our fifth bucket: the million-plus individual investors who simply trust us to represent their interests, whatever the future may bring. They have joined us with no intent to leave, adopting a mindset similar to that held by our original partners. Indeed, many investors from our partnership years, and/or their descendants, remain substantial owners of Berkshire.

所有这些都表明,如果我们对第五个桶子没有特殊的亲戚关系,我和查理将比人类更小:超过百万的个人投资者,他们简单地相信我们代表他们的利益,而不管未来可能带来什么。他们加入我们的意图是无意离开,他们采用的态度与我们最初的合作伙伴所持的态度相似。确实,我们合伙制时代以来的许多投资者和/或其后代仍然是伯克希尔的主要所有者。


A prototype of those veterans is Stan Truhlsen, a cheerful and generous Omaha ophthalmologist as well as personal friend, who turned 100 on November 13, 2020. In 1959, Stan, along with 10 other young Omaha doctors, formed a partnership with me. The docs creatively labeled their venture Emdee, Ltd. Annually, they joined my wife and me for a celebratory dinner at our home.

这些经验丰富的人的原型是斯坦·特鲁尔森(Stan Truhlsen),他是开朗,慷慨的奥马哈眼科医生,也是个人朋友,他于20201113日年满100岁。1959年,斯坦与其他10位年轻的奥马哈医生一起与我建立了伙伴关系。这些文档创造性地标记了他们的合资企业EmdeeLtd。每年,他们与我和我的妻子一起在我们家里举行庆祝晚宴。


When our partnership distributed its Berkshire shares in 1969, all of the doctors kept the stock they received. They may not have known the ins and outs of investing or accounting, but they did know that at Berkshire they would be treated as partners.

当我们的合伙企业在1969年分配伯克希尔股票时,所有医生都保留了收到的股票。他们可能不知道投资或会计的来龙去脉,但他们确实知道在伯克希尔,他们将被视为合伙人。


Two of Stan’s comrades from Emdee are now in their high-90s and continue to hold Berkshire shares. This group’s startling durability – along with the fact that Charlie and I are 97 and 90, respectively – serves up an interesting question: Could it be that Berkshire ownership fosters longevity?

来自EmdeeStan的两个同志现在处于90年代的高位,并继续持有Berkshire的股票。这个小组令人吃惊的耐用性-以及我和查理分别是97岁和90岁这一事实提出了一个有趣的问题:伯克希尔·哈撒韦的所有权会促进人们的长寿吗?


* * * * * * * * * * * *

Berkshire’s unusual and valued family of individual shareholders may add to your understanding of our reluctance to court Wall Street analysts and institutional investors. We already have the investors we want and don’t think that they, on balance, would be upgraded by replacements.

伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司不寻常且有价值的个人股东家族可能会增加您对我们不愿向华尔街分析师和机构投资者提起诉讼的理解。我们已经有了想要的投资者,总的来说,他们认为他们不会因为替换而升级。


There are only so many seats – that is, shares outstanding – available for Berkshire ownership. And we very much like the people already occupying them.

伯克希尔拥有的席位只有这么多(即流通股)。我们非常喜欢已经占领他们的人们。


Of course, some turnover in “partners” will occur. Charlie and I hope, however, that it will be minimal. Who, after all, seeks rapid turnover in friends, neighbors or marriage?

当然,合作伙伴会发生一些更替。但是,查理和我希望这将是最小的。毕竟,谁寻求朋友,邻居或婚姻的快速周转?


In 1958, Phil Fisher wrote a superb book on investing. In it, he analogized running a public company to managing a restaurant. If you are seeking diners, he said, you can attract a clientele and prosper featuring either hamburgers served with a Coke or a French cuisine accompanied by exotic wines. But you must not, Fisher warned, capriciously switch from one to the other: Your message to potential customers must be consistent with what they will find upon entering your premises.

1958年,菲尔·费舍尔(Phil Fisher)写了一本关于投资的精湛著作。在其中,他将经营一家上市公司比作一家餐厅的管理公司。他说,如果您正在寻找就餐者,那么您可以吸引顾客并繁荣起来,无论是汉堡配可乐还是法国料理以及异国情调的葡萄酒。费舍尔警告说,但您一定不能随意从一个切换到另一个:向潜在客户传达的信息必须与他们进入您的场所时所能找到的一致。


At Berkshire, we have been serving hamburgers and Coke for 56 years. We cherish the clientele this fare has attracted.

在伯克郡,我们已经为汉堡包和可乐服务了56年。我们珍惜这种票价吸引的顾客。


The tens of millions of other investors and speculators in the United States and elsewhere have a wide variety of equity choices to fit their tastes. They will find CEOs and market gurus with enticing ideas. If they want price targets, managed earnings and “stories,” they will not lack suitors. “Technicians” will confidently instruct them as to what some wiggles on a chart portend for a stock’s next move. The calls for action will never stop.

美国和其他地区的数千万其他投资者和投机者可以根据自己的喜好选择各种各样的股票。他们会发现具有诱人想法的CEO和市场大师。如果他们想要价格目标,可管理的收益和故事,他们将不会缺乏追求者。 技术人员将自信地指示他们图表上的一些波动预示着股票的下一步走势。采取行动的呼声永远不会停止。


Many of those investors, I should add, will do quite well. After all, ownership of stocks is very much a “positive-sum” game. Indeed, a patient and level-headed monkey, who constructs a portfolio by throwing 50 darts at a board listing all of the S&P 500, will – over time – enjoy dividends and capital gains, just as long as it never gets tempted to make changes in its original “selections.”

我应该补充说,其中许多投资者会做得很好。毕竟,股票所有权在很大程度上是一种正和博弈。确实,耐心和头脑平凡的猴子通过在列出所有标准普尔500指数的董事会上投掷50支飞镖来构建投资组合,只要不曾尝试进行更改,它就会随着时间的流逝而享有股利和资本收益。以其原始的选择


Productive assets such as farms, real estate and, yes, business ownership produce wealth – lots of it. Most owners of such properties will be rewarded. All that’s required is the passage of time, an inner calm, ample diversification and a minimization of transactions and fees. Still, investors must never forget that their expenses are Wall Street’s income. And, unlike my monkey, Wall Streeters do not work for peanuts.

农场,房地产等生产性资产,以及企业所有权,都会产生财富-其中很多。这些财产的大多数所有者将得到奖励。所需要的只是时间的流逝,内心的平静,丰富的多样化以及交易和费用的最小化。尽管如此,投资者仍然不能忘记他们的支出是华尔街的收入。而且,与我的猴子不同,华尔街人对花生不起作用。


When seats open up at Berkshire – and we hope they are few – we want them to be occupied by newcomers who understand and desire what we offer. After decades of management, Charlie and I remain unable to promise results. We can and do, however, pledge to treat you as partners.

当伯克希尔的席位开放时-我们希望他们的席位很少-我们希望它们被理解并渴望我们提供的产品的新来者所占据。经过数十年的管理,查理和我仍然无法保证结果。但是,我们可以并且确实保证将您视为合作伙伴。


And so, too, will our successors.

我们的继任者也将如此。

 

A Berkshire Number that May Surprise You

伯克希尔郡的数字可能会让你感到惊讶


Recently, I learned a fact about our company that I had never suspected: Berkshire owns American-based property, plant and equipment – the sort of assets that make up the “business infrastructure” of our country – with a GAAP valuation exceeding the amount owned by any other U.S. company. Berkshire’s depreciated cost of these domestic “fixed assets” is $154 billion. Next in line on this list is AT&T, with property, plant and equipment of $127 billion.

最近,我了解到了一个我公司从未怀疑的事实:伯克希尔拥有美国的不动产,厂场和设备-构成我们国家业务基础设施的那种资产-GAAP估值超过其拥有的金额由任何其他美国公司提供。伯克希尔对这些国内固定资产的折旧成本为1540亿美元。紧随其后的是美国电话电报公司(ATT),其不动产,厂场和设备为1,270亿美元。


Our leadership in fixed-asset ownership, I should add, does not, in itself, signal an investment triumph. The best results occur at companies that require minimal assets to conduct high-margin businesses – and offer goods or services that will expand their sales volume with only minor needs for additional capital. We, in fact, own a few of these exceptional businesses, but they are relatively small and, at best, grow slowly.

我要补充一点,我们在固定资产所有权方面的领导地位本身并不表示投资取得了胜利。最好的结果发生在那些需要最少资产来开展高利润业务的公司,并提供商品或服务来扩大销售量而只需要很少的额外资金。实际上,我们拥有其中一些杰出的业务,但它们规模较小,充其量只能缓慢发展。


Asset-heavy companies, however, can be good investments. Indeed, we are  delighted  with  our  two  giants – BNSF and BHE: In 2011, Berkshire’s first full year of BNSF ownership, the two companies had combined earnings of $4.2 billion. In 2020, a tough year for many businesses, the pair earned $8.3 billion.

但是,拥有大量资产的公司可能是不错的投资。的确,我们对两家巨头-BNSFBHE感到很高兴:在2011年,伯克希尔哈撒韦拥有BNSF的第一个完整年度,两家公司的总收入达到了42亿美元。 2020年对许多企业来说都是艰难的一年,两人赚了83亿美元。


BNSF and BHE will require major capital expenditures for decades to come. The good news is that both are likely to deliver appropriate returns on the incremental investment.

BNSFBHE在未来几十年将需要大量资本支出。好消息是,两者都有可能为增量投资带来适当的回报。


Let’s look first at BNSF. Your railroad carries about 15% of all non-local ton-miles (a ton of freight moved one mile) of goods that move in the United States, whether by rail, truck, pipeline, barge or aircraft. By a significant margin, BNSF’s loads top those of any other carrier.

首先让我们看一下BNSF。您的铁路运送在美国境内运输的所有非本地吨英里(一吨货物移动一英里)中的15%,无论是通过铁路,卡车,管道,驳船还是飞机。 BNSF的负载可观的是其他任何运营商的最高负载。


The history of American railroads is fascinating. After 150 years or so of frenzied construction, skullduggery, overbuilding, bankruptcies, reorganizations and mergers, the railroad industry finally emerged a few decades ago as mature and rationalized.

美国铁路的历史令人着迷。经过150年左右的疯狂建设,抢劫,过度建筑,破产,重组和兼并,经过几十年的成熟和合理化,铁路行业终于出现了。


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